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Calculating the limit state (LS) exceedance probability for a structure considering the main seismic event and the triggered aftershocks (AS) is complicated both by the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also by the cumulative damage caused by the sequence of events. Taking advantage of a methodology developed previously by the authors for post‐mainshock (MS) risk assessment, the LS probability due to a sequence of mainshock and the triggered aftershocks is calculated for a given aftershock forecasting time window. The proposed formulation takes into account both the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence and also the damage accumulation due to the triggered aftershocks. It is demonstrated that an existing reinforced concrete moment‐resisting frame with infills subjected to the main event and the triggered sequence exceeds the near‐collapse LS. On the other hand, the structure does not reach the onset of near‐collapse LS when the effect of triggered aftershocks is not considered. It is shown, based on simplifying assumptions, that the derived formulation yields asymptotically to the same Poisson‐type functional form used when the cumulative damage is not being considered. This leads to a range of approximate solutions by substituting the fragilities calculated for intact, MS‐damaged, and MS‐plus‐one‐AS‐damaged structures in the asymptotic simplified formulation. The latter two approximate solutions provide good agreement with the derived formulation. Even when the fragility of intact structure is employed, the approximate solution (considering only the time‐dependent rate of aftershock occurrence) leads to higher risk estimates compared with those obtained based on only the mainshock. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Fatemeh?KarandishEmail author Seyed?Saeed?Mousavi Hossein?Tabari 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2017,31(8):2121-2146
Global greenhouse gases increase could be a threat to sustainable agriculture since it might affect both green water and air temperature. Using the outputs of 15 general circulation models (GCMs) under three SRES scenarios of A1B, A2 and B1, the projected annual and seasonal precipitation (P) and cardinal temperatures (T) were analyzed for five climatic zones in Iran. In addition, the probable effects of climate change on cereal production were studied using AquaCrop model. Data obtained from the GCMs were downscaled using LARS-WG for 52 synoptic stations up to 2100. An uncertainty analysis was done for the projected P and T associated to GCMs and SRES scenarios. Based on station observations, LARS-WG was capable enough for simulating both P and T for all the climatic zones. The majority of GCMs as well as the median of the ensemble for each scenario project positive P and T changes. In all the climatic zones, wet seasons have a higher P increase than dry seasons, with the highest increase (27.9–83.3%) corresponding to hyper-arid and arid regions. A few GCMs project a P reduction mainly in Mediterranean and hyper-humid climatic regions. The highest increase (11.2–44.5%) in minimum T occurred in Mediterranean climatic regions followed by semi-arid regions in which a concurrent increase in maximum T (2.9–14.6%) occurred. The largest uncertainty in P and cardinal T projection occurred in rainy seasons as well as in hyper-humid regions. The AquaCrop simulation results revealed that the increased cardinal T under global warming will cause 0–28.5% increase in cereal water requirement as well as 0–15% reduction in crop yield leading to 0–30% reduction in water use efficiency in 95% of the country. 相似文献
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Etiology of Salinity and Water Origin,the Main Dilemma of Badab Sourt,a Unique Travertine Spring 
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下载免费PDF全文 Badab Sourt travertine‐depositing springs in the north of Iran, naturally create a unique surreal landscape containing a range of stepped travertine terraces, similarly found only in a few other places on earth. This site comprises of three travertine saline springs with different values of salinity and discharge (SP1, SP2, and SP3) and one non‐travertine fresh karstic spring (SP4) within a distance of about 300 m. The etiology behind this salinity and the water origin are the main research's dilemma that were investigated using geological, hydrochemical, and stable isotopic techniques. Based on the topography and isotopic results, the carbonate formations in northern (Khoshyeilagh and Mobarak) and southern (Cretaceous limestone) parts of the springs potentially provide the initial hydraulic gradient for deep circulation of the water and CO2. However, geological studies indicate that the hydraulic connectivity of the Cretaceous formation to the travertine springs is interrupted by impermeable geological formations. Based on the proposed conceptual hydrogeological model and mass balance calculations, the SP4 spring is locally recharged from the nearby karstic area of Khoshyeilagh formation through shallow, short and steep groundwater flow circulation that is completely different from the travertine springs. The travertine spring (SP1) is recharged from more distant areas having higher altitudes on Mobarak and Khoshyeilagh limestone and circulate more deeply before emerging on the surface. The SP2 and SP3 springs can derive from the mixing of the saline water (SP1) and fresh water (SP4). The dissolution of interlayers of halite in Shemshak formation is concluded as the main source of salinity. This is the first research article in detail to survey hydrogeology of the travertine springs in Iran. 相似文献
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We have used stable water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H) in combination with lumped-parameter modeling for characterizing unsaturated flow in two lysimeters vegetated with maize. The lysimeters contained undisturbed soil cores dominated by sandy gravel (Ly1) and clayey sandy silt (Ly2). Stable water isotopes were analyzed in precipitation and lysimeter outflow water over about 3 years. The mean transit time of water T and dispersion parameter PD, obtained from modeling, were higher for the silt soil in Ly2 than for the gravel soil in Ly1 (T of 362 vs. 129 d, PD of 0.7 vs. 0.12). The consideration of preferential flow (PF) paths could substantially improve the model curve fits, with 13 and 11% contribution of PF for Ly1 and Ly2 as best estimates. Different assumptions were compared to estimate the input function, that is, stable water isotope content in the recharging water. Using the isotopic composition of precipitation as input (no modification) resulted in reasonable model estimations. Best model fits for the entire observation were obtained by weighting the recharging isotopes according to average precipitation within periods of 3 and 6 months, in correspondence to changing vegetation phases and seasonal influences. Input functions that consider actual evapotranspiration could significantly improve modeling at some periods, however, this led to deviations between modeled and observed δ18O at other periods. This may indicate the influence of variable flow, so that dividing the whole observation period into hydraulically characteristic sub-periods for lumped-parameter modeling (which implements steady-state flow) is recommended for possible further improvement. 相似文献